Cesare Guariniello

SUPPORTING SPACE SYSTEMS DESIGN VIA SYSTEMS DEPENDENCY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

Dissertation Abstract: The increasing size and complexity of space systems and space missions pose severe challenges to space systems engineers. When complex systems and Systems-of-Systems are involved, the behavior of the whole entity is not only due to that of the individual systems involved but also to the interactions and dependencies between the systems. Dependencies can be varied and complex, and designers usually do not perform analysis of the impact of dependencies at the level of complex systems, or this analysis involves excessive computational cost, or occurs at a later stage of the design process, after designers have already set detailed requirements, following a bottom-up approach. While classical systems engineering attempts to integrate the perspectives involved across the variety of engineering disciplines and the objectives of multiple stakeholders, there is still a need for more effective tools and methods capable to identify, analyze and quantify properties of the complex system as a whole and to model explicitly the effect of some of the features that characterize complex systems.

This research describes the development and usage of Systems Operational Dependency Analysis and Systems Developmental Dependency Analysis, two methods based on parametric models of the behavior of complex systems, one in the operational domain and one in the developmental domain. The parameters of the developed models have intuitive meaning, are usable with subjective and quantitative data alike, and give redirect insight into the causes of observed, and possibly emergent, behavior.

The approach proposed in this dissertation combines models of one-to-one dependencies among systems and between systems and capabilities, to analyze and evaluate the impact of failures or delays on the outcome of the whole complex system. The analysis accounts for cascading effects, partial operational failures, multiple failures or delays, and partial developmental dependencies. The user of these methods can assess the behavior of each system based on its internal status and on the topology of its dependencies on systems connected to it. Designers and decision makers can therefore quickly analyze and explore the behavior of complex systems and evaluate different architectures under various working conditions.

The methods support educated decision making both in the design and in the update process of systems architecture, reducing the need to execute extensive simulations. In particular, in the phase of concept generation and selection, the information given by the methods can be used to identify promising architectures to be further tested and improved, while discarding architectures that do not show the required level of global features. The methods, when used in conjunction with appropriate metrics, also allow for improved reliability and risk analysis, as well as for automatic scheduling and re-scheduling based on the features of the dependencies and on the accepted level of risk.

This dissertation illustrates the use of the two methods in sample aerospace applications, both in the operational and in the developmental domain. The applications show how to use the developed methodology to evaluate the impact of failures, assess the criticality of systems, quantify metrics of interest, quantify the impact of delays, support informed decision making when scheduling the development of systems and evaluate the achievement of partial capabilities.

A larger, well-framed case study illustrates how the Systems Operational Dependency Analysis method and the Systems Developmental Dependency Analysis method can support analysis and decision making, at the mid and high level, in the design process of architectures for the exploration of Mars. The case study also shows how the methods do not replace the classical systems engineering methodologies, but support and improve them.

Author: Cesare Guariniello / Advisor: Dr. Daniel DeLaurentis / Date: 29th of July of 2016 / Department: School of Aeronautics and Astronautics / Degree: Doctor of Philosophy.

Author Biosketch:  Cesare is a Research Associate in the School of Aeronautics and Astronautics in Purdue University He holds two Master degrees, in Robotics and Astronautical Engineering, from the University of Rome “La Sapienza”, and a PhD in Aeronautics and Astronautics from Purdue University. His research ranges from System-of-Systems design and architecture to space applications, cybersecurity, and defense and includes projects with NASA, the US DoD, the US Navy, and MITRE corporation. Cesare recently expanded his research in the field of Earth Sciences, where he is pursuing a Master degree in Planetary Geology.

Cesare is an active member of the alpha chapter of the honor society of aerospace engineering, Sigma Gamma Tau, the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), the Institute of Electrical and Electronical Engineers (IEEE), and the American Astronautical Society (AAS). In 2016, he was presented with the Leadership Award for his effort and service to the Purdue University INCOSE Student Division. Also in 2016, CERIAS awarded Cesare with the prestigious Diamond Award for outstanding academic achievements. He authored several journal and conference papers, and served as peer reviewer for multiple top-rated journals.

Outside academia, Cesare enjoys a wide variety of activities. He is member of the Mensa Club, the Mars society, the Planetary Society and – after obtaining all three levels of amateur radio license from the Federal Communication Commission – the American Radio Relay League (ARRL). As a fencer, he represented Purdue university in various collegiate tournaments, in quality of member and captain of the men’s foil team. In 2014 he obtained his first of three scuba diving certifications, and in 2016 he obtained his Private Pilot License from the Federal Aviation Administration. In 2018, he served as analog astronaut in Crew 186 at the Mars Desert Research Station.

Author Contact: Cesare Guariniello, Research Associate. Purdue University, School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 701 W Stadium Ave, West Lafayette, IN 47906 USA. Phone: +1 765 496 3465. Email address: cguarini@purdue.edu