Kent E Andersson
2018 SE Doctoral Dissertation Showcase – Honorary Recognition
On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Managment: A Systems Approach
There is an ongoing duel between military sensor development and developments in signature management. The last decade, with warfare characterized by joint expeditionary operations and asymmetry, has favored sensors. However, on account of the worsening security situation in Europe, there is now also an increasing interest in efforts to increase survivability of own military platforms. Spectral design is one of several promising technologies with extensive research potentially suitable for Low Observable platforms. It involves creating desired spectral optical responses from surfaces, in this case reducing contrast to background, by choosing suitable materials and structures.
The challenge to a military decisionmaker, faced with inherent uncertainties concerning the future and with limited resources, is how to choose among alternative capabilities, technologies or equipment. Correspondingly, on account of the system character of the signature attribute, researchers in technologies for signature management has difficulties communicating relevant basis for these decisions.
The scope of this thesis is therefore to find and analyze patterns in decision situations involving technology or technical systems for military use, and the purpose is to propose conceptual and methodological contributions to support future decisionmaking. The technology focus is on spectral design and the application in focus is signature management of Low Observable military platforms. The research objective is addressed from a military system and capability centric perspective using methods from several disciplines in the military sciences domain. The result is synthesized from four separate studies: 1) on spectral design using systematic review of literature, 2) on military utility using a concept formation method, 3) on modeling for how to operationalize a link between spectral design and measures of military utility using methods of military operations research, and, 4) on cases of systems engineering of military Low Observable platform designs.
In summary, the result of the work presented in this thesis is a compilation of related work in military sciences, systems engineering and material optics into a framework to support effective decisionmaking in relevant contexts. The major contribution to theory is a proposed concept called Military Utility, capturing how to communicate the utility of technical systems, or technology, in a military context. It is a compound measure of Military Effectiveness, Military Suitability and Affordability. Other contributions can be expected to support decision-making in practice;
– the so-called Ladder-model is a template for how to quantitatively operationalize the military effectiveness dimension of Military Utility regarding the use of spectral design;
– an applied Ladder-model is demonstrated, useful for analyzing the military utility of spectral designs in Low Observable attack aircraft;
– a probabilistic framework for survivability assessments is adopted into a methodology for doing the analysis, and lastly;
– a generic workflow is identified, from relevant development programs, including decision-situations that can benefit from the adopted methodology.
Kent Andersson is an active officer in the Swedish Armed Forces and a lecturer and researcher at the Swedish Defence University. He is currently managing the development of a new master´s program in Defence and Security Systems Development starting in the autumn of 2019. He received his master’s degree in engineering physics from Uppsala University, Sweden, in 1990 and a Licentiate degree in solid state physics in 1993. His research was on the spectral design of solar control coatings on window panes for energy saving purposes. After receiving his degree Kent started his employment in the Swedish Armed Forces and came to develop broad knowledge in the development of command and control systems, as a systems engineer and project manager. In 2018 he received his PhD in military sciences from the National Defence University of Finland. In his PhD research, supervised by Jouko Vankka (FNDU), Gunnar Hult (SEDU), Hans Liwång (SEDU), and Hans Kariis (Swedish Defence Research Agency), he investigated the military utility of spectral design in signature management applications using a systems approach.
Kent E Andersson, LtCol/PhD, Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division
Correspondence Address: Box 278 05, 115 93 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46 8 5534 2836
2018 SE Doctoral Dissertation Showcase – Honorary Recognition
Successful Project Portfolio Management Delivery: A Novel Strategic Portfolio Decision-Making Model
Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures which requires considering several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes that support strategic project portfolio decisions. The success of PPM is closely associated with the degree of understanding of its issues and the quality of decisions made at the portfolio level as poor judgement reduces efficiency and increases portfolio costs. Although several Multi-criteria Decision-making (MCDM) methods have been introduced in support of PPM decision-making functions, there has been little assessment of their performances, particularly regarding which one works best for PPM.
This study identifies the key PPM challenges, proposes a new framework for classifying PPM MCDM-related methods and undertakes a literature review of the application of MCDM approaches to PPM. Of over 100 methods identified in over 1400 publications, eight (AHP, ANP, DEA, DSRA, ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, TOPSIS and VIKOR) that best suit PPM are selected and compared. Although two standard methods (AHP and DEA) are shown to be the most appropriate for application to PPM, each has its own shortcomings.
To overcome the challenges, this study proposes a novel method for portfolio selection/decision making that combines the Portfolio Theory (PT), AHP and a DEA cross-efficiency technique and considers the profit, risks and proficiency of the portfolio. It is demonstrated that this method can be useful for selecting a portfolio with positive and negative data and, subsequently, measuring efficiency using the AHP. To test the applicability of the proposed model, it is used to determine the efficiency levels of ten of the largest companies in Australia in 2014 and 2015, with two criteria, namely, the expected return and variance, used to identify the preference status of each company. A consistency test conducted to assess the objectivity of the results indicates that this application of the proposed model, which simultaneously analyses profits, risks and proficiency, is feasible and adoptable for a contemporary industrial scenario. Furthermore, an executive management system is proposed as an alternative decision support tool for decision makers.
Darius Danesh is a Fellow Certified Practising Portfolio Executive (FAIPM CPPE) and a Fellow Chartered Professional Engineering Executive (FIEAust CPEng EngExec RPEQ NER APEC Engineer IntPE) with experience in a variety of executive engineering and management roles in the government and private sectors. He has led many complex programs ranging from PMO development, organisational change management and performance improvement, strategic risk management, and operational management to major infrastructure and construction, mining, oil and gas projects. Darius holds a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degrees in Engineering Science and a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Project Management from the University of New South Wales (UNSW); and a Diploma and an Advanced Diploma in Project Management. He has also gained other qualifications in Systems Engineering, Modern Communication Systems, Complex Procurement and Contract Management, and International Contract Law. Darius is an AIPM approved RegPM Certification Assessor and has been a panelist for numerous Chartered Professional Engineering (CPEng) Review interviews.